On November 19th, the Center of Excellence in French and Francophone Studies, and the French Department, the Institute of European Studies, and the Villa Albertine in San Francisco, hosted Vincent Michelot, a professor of American Civilization at Sciences Po Lyon. Michelot delivered a lecture on how the 2024 American election has been perceived in France. The event was held in the Library of French Thought and was attended by more than 30 people.
Michelot opened his conference by providing context through the lens of contemporary French politics. He noted that French citizens often underestimate the size and influence of the Republican Party in the United States and discussed the gap between polling data and actual voting behavior in both countries. Specifically, he pointed out that French pollsters frequently struggle to account for "far-right" voters, as well as those classified as being on “the middle” or “the right.”
He analyzed voting trends from 2016 to 2024, citing a decline in support for Democratic candidates, such as Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris. Michelot attributed this trend to differences in voter mobilization and campaign effectiveness. He argued that Trump’s success in the 2024 election reflected a backlash among certain segments of the electorate against Vice President Harris because of "bread-and-butter" issues, and stated that Vice-Presidents never win a presidential election because they are perceived as incumbent candidates (with one exception in the past). Therefore, for all these reasons, he stated that Donald Trump's election was not a big surprise seen from france.
Shifting to French politics, Michelot examined how opinions in France about the U.S. election results were shaped by their own political landscape. He described President Macron’s unconventional political approach, including his decision to call early elections for the National Assembly, and the failure of traditional political parties in France, which has paved the way for the rise of “protest parties.” These parties, designed to spotlight specific issues, have led to a dysfunctional coalition system.
Michelot also discussed the declining influence of traditional mediators like the traditional media in both France and the U.S., drawing a contrast between the two countries. He noted how President Trump has disrupted political norms in the U.S., whereas the French political system continues to uphold traditional practices.