On February 25th, the Institute of European Studies at UC Berkeley hosted a rapid-response webinar to discuss the results of the 2025 German federal elections. The event was moderated by Mia Fuller, Faculty Director of the Institute, alongside Dr. Akasemi Newsome, Associate Director of the Institute. The panel featured experts on German elections and politics, including Andrea Römmele, Professor of Political Communication at the Hertie School; Terri Givens from the University of British Columbia; and Sabrina Zajak, Head of the Department of Consensus and Conflict Research at the German Center for Immigration and Migration Research. The webinar had an audience of 36 individuals.
The discussion began with reactions to the election in Germany, abroad, and in academia. Römmele highlighted that the results aligned with pre-election polls, with the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (CDU) emerging as the largest party, followed by the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the Social Democratic Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD), and the Greens. One clear takeaway: Friedrich Merz will be the next Chancellor. However, the panel emphasized that forming a governing coalition will be a lengthy and complex process.
This election season was marked by the rise of the AfD. Various factors shaped voting behavior in 2025 —age, gender, and immigration status. Zajak and Givens debunked the notion that immigrants vote as a bloc: while Turkish migrants in the West tended to favor the SPD, former soviet migrants in the East leaned toward the AfD’s anti-immigration stance. Despite the AfD’s heavy focus on migration, this issue did not seem to garner additional votes for the CDU. Römmele notes how once-fringe political discourse has become mainstream in Germany, particularly as center parties attempt to co-opt far-right rhetoric, often reinforcing rather than countering it.
Despite the political shakeup, panelists agreed Germany will remain a European leader. However, Römmele emphasized the need for renewed investment in regional and domestic security, particularly given the threat of U.S. withdrawal from Ukraine. Givens added that America’s retreat from its transatlantic partners creates an opening for Germany to take a stronger role in NATO.
While climate and energy have been central issues in past German elections, they played a minimal role this year. Economic and security concerns dominated instead. Zajak labelled climate a “non-issue” in the 2025 race, and she noted that economic competition with China—an ongoing U.S. priority—was largely absent from German election debates.
A key concern is the stark polarization between East and West Germany. Zajak pointed out that while the rise of the AfD has raised alarms, another troubling development is the growing electoral divide between regions. With Merz poised to take office, Germany may see a cabinet dominated by Westerners. Zajak and Römmele echoed concerns over this divide, while Givens criticized Western media for oversimplifying Germany’s electoral and coalition processes due to an Americanized bias.
The panelists also examined the increasing influence of right-wing parties on young voters. Zajak even noted that AfD advertisements were appearing in video games, directly targeting young men. She highlighted growing disenchantment among Eastern youth, many of whom view reunification as an ongoing struggle rather than a success. As these sentiments grow, the stark East-West and urban-rural divide in this election is rendered all the more concerning.
Givens stressed the need to examine transnational radical right networks, framing the surge in right-wing politics as a broader transatlantic phenomenon. Despite the coalition-building challenges ahead, Zajak concluded on a hopeful note, expressing confidence in Germany’s strong Weberian institutions to prevent democratic backsliding.