Report on Kupchan's "Rise of Europe"

On March 11, Professor Charles Kupchan gave a lecture entitled "The Rise of Europe and the End of the American Era" as part of the IES Transatlantic Turbulence series. Professor Kupchan teaches at Georgetown University and is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He has recently written an influential and highly acclaimed book entitled The End of the American Era which addresses a fundamental question: How will the world transform itself in the coming years, and what will be Americas place in it? To answer these questions, Kupchan compares the current era, marked by the demise of the Soviet Union, the breakup of states like Yugosalvia, and the rise of terrorism and the emergence of an "America first" attitude in the United states to other turning points in history.

"History teaches us that great powers come and go. This time," Kupchan argued in his lecture, "the United States must make way for Europe." Like the split between Rome and Byzantium, the West will split ideologically between Europe and the United States, as political and strategic goals in the transatlantic community continue to diverge. Trade disputes are only one indicator of the differences that will lead Europe and America to part ways. Transatlantic turbulance, then, is likely to continue for some time.

Kupchan argues that an increasingly unified Europe is reaching a point at which Europeans can speak with a single voice on international issues. With enlargement to the East, Europe's GDP will almost equal that of the United States. The Euro is coming to replace the dollar in world trade. And a new generation of Europeans is no longer concerned with "escaping the past" and instead looks to a bright future for Europe envisioned in the European Convention At the same time, the United States' move to unilateralism is leading Europeans to reassess their independent international interests.

Not an optimistic picture, but, Kupchan believes, it is a realistic one.