The EU and Iran: A New Role for Old Europe? (cont.)

.... Iran claims that the program is strictly for civilian purposes and within its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treat (NPT), but the West suspects it to be a facade for a nuclear weapons program. With the rise in oil prices and continued instability in neighboring Iraq, Iran is poised to strengthen its diplomatic and negotiating position and may not be as susceptible to outside economic pressures. This may pose a challenge to Europe’s bargaining position particularly if it maintains a hardline stance so closely resembling the United States’. The Iranian nuclear case is a test to see whether there is an independent role for Europe to play in solving crises of global consequence and whether Europe will emerge as a counterweight to the U.S. in the international arena.

The core of the issue, and Iran-E3 negotiation, centers on Iran’s uranium conversion and enrichment activities, processes that are essential for production of nuclear fuel (for Iran’s soon-to-come-online, Russian-built nuclear power reactor at Bushehr) but that are also stages in the production of material for a nuclear bomb. Under the NPT, to which Iran is a signatory, a country can carry on fuel-cycle activities that will lead to the production of nuclear fuel, such as conversion and enrichment, but cannot manufacture or seek assistance to manufacture nuclear weapons or explosive devices. Although technically within its rights, what worries the Europeans, the U.S., and the International Atomic Energy Agency is Iran’s 2003 admission that for over two decades it had conducted nuclear-related activities in secret.

Iran has kept its conversion and enrichment activities frozen since October 2003 as part of negotiations with the E3. However, Iran has restarted work at its uranium conversion plant at Isfahan and is hinting that it will set aside suspension of enrichment activities as well, despite ongoing negotiations with the Europeans and an offer on the table. Europe ’s offer, while containing some significant economic and security offers, is generally considered by analysts to be heavy on demands and weak and vague on concrete incentives. In fact, as Paul Ingram of the British American Security Information Council notes, the offer appears to be very close to U.S. demands of Iran: complete termination of any and all nuclear fuel-cycle activities.

The E3’s success, until now, in negotiating with Iran points to the fact that perhaps it is time for Europe to distance itself from the hardline position of its ally, the U.S. There is some evidence to suggest that this is precisely what is happening. With President Bush refusing to rule out the option of using force against Iran, Germany’s leaders – both embattled Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and his likely successor Angela Merkel – have for the first time united in their opposition to this policy. A unified stance of the international community on the issue of Iran’s nuclear program is ideal. However the West’s position that Iran should not be allowed to embark on a nuclear program since it may lead to nuclear weapons is on shaky legal grounds, and is not supported by either China or Russia, two key players in the decision to set up further sanctions who are in the position to exert influence on Iran.

With soaring oil prices, Iran believes it has increased its leverage in negotiations and is less vulnerable to economic pressures. However, the E3 and, in particular, France (with its heavy enmeshment in Iran’s economy) still have considerable influence, individually and as part of G8, to influence Iran’s long-term economic growth through ban on major investment. Iran ’s case is an opportunity for Europe to deepen its relations with Russia and to present themselves as independent and distinct from the U.S. and its hardline policies. The E3 should use Russia’s substantial involvement in Iran’s civilian nuclear program, and its own economic power as bargaining chips in its negotiations with Iran to carve out an independent role for itself in solving the Iranian nuclear standoff and to cement its position as a legitimate and powerful actor in the international arena.

— Yana Feldman