Turkey, Europe and the United States in a Time of Strategic Uncertainty
Ian Lesser

Monday, February 2nd

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IES Lecture Series 2003-2004
Beyond the Gulf: US-European Relations After Iraq

In this his first visit to Berkeley, Dr. Lesser described the momentous changes going on in Turkey. Warmly introduced by IES Research Fellow Zachary Shore, he commenced the lecture by feeling out his audience. Several attendees were graduate students, and the others were undergrads, local residents and staff.

Lesser began with his views on what is happening within the borders of Turkey. He feels that the current paradigms are much more about populism and reform in a general sort of sense.

"The changes in Turkey right now are not so much about Islam," said Lesser. "They are more about changing Turkish society."

He noted the rise of a parallel elite -- a kind of "shadow elite" not part of the traditional Turkish business class -- that has emerged since the economic crash a few years ago. This crash allowed the disenfranchised elite, who weren't as exposed when the crash came, to get a foothold and wield more influence in society. Perhaps partly because of this, there is a lot more diversity in Turkish politics today. Though some skeptics would argue that Prime Minister Tayip Erdoðan is not as democratic as he seems, he is, as Lesser stated, "pragmatic enough to appear highly democratic." Erdoðan also surrounds himself with highly secular businessmen. Lesser said these factors all point to the idea that Turkish government leaders have finally become "coup-proofed" -- as long as the said leaders don't interfere with the secular state.

As inferred, many of the changes in Turkey have to do more with internal renovations, and less with foreign policy. Of course, the Turkish government has had to deal with foreign policy anyway, given the tumultuous outlook of world affairs over the past few years.

"The way in which they've dealt with foreign policy," said Lesser, "is not surprising. They have in fact had a better audience with the US than with their own people, and public opinion now counts in the country." Turkey has also recently seen the rise of the lobby, mainly in relation to ethnic and functional issues. Ninety percent of the population opposed the use of force in Iraq. Lesser was in fact surprised that US-Turkish negotiations, relating to operations centers for the US bombing of Iraq, got as far as they did.

Yet the Turkish government is having a hard time finding a way into the European Union, despite some of its shared sentiments towards US foreign policy. Lesser feels that Turkey has moved "leaps and bounds" this year, politically.

"The trajectory is clearly one of reform and liberalism," he added.

But will it be enough?

Lesser said the EU's hesitancy to admit Turkey has to do with two major factors: scale and religion. If admitted, Turkey would soon constitute the largest member state in the EU. It would also bring in a population of some seventy to eighty million Muslims. Many argue that this idea is exactly why Europe should add Turkey. Lesser also feels it would be a positive move for both Turkey and the EU.

Turkey's stake in amiable foreign relations with the EU -- and the US -- is quite large. Aside from the enormous codification of progress represented by the badge of membership in the EU, Turkey -- a security-conscious state -- would like to have more assurance of safety: something they can't achieve unilaterally. They would also benefit economically from accession to the EU.

Yet Europe may prefer to think of Turkey as a "valuable barrier," and not a bridge, to other predominantly Muslim populations.

Lesser continued his lecture with thoughts on the current US-Turkey foreign policy. He feels the problem is that the US's foreign policy with Turkey has historically been a by-product of Cold War policy towards other big players such as Russia. In Lesser's opinion, the US hasn't done much to update this agenda, and this may be influencing the fact that many Turks are highly ambivalent towards US foreign policy.

"Turkey wants the deterrence they'd get from a good relationship with the US, but also economic growth and EU candidacy," said Lesser. "The real nightmare for Turkey would be a rift between the US and Europe in which they'd have to choose sides.

Turkey is currently at a crucial crossroad. The turnout will have much to do with transatlantic relations over the next ten years.



Dr. Lesser is Vice President and Director of Studies at the Pacific Council on International Policy in Los Angeles. He came to the Council from RAND, where he was a senior political scientist specializing in strategic studies and Mediterranean affairs. In 1994-95 he was a member of the State Department's Policy Planning Staff, where his responsibilities included southern Europe, Turkey, North Africa and the multilateral track of the Middle East peace process. Earlier in his career he was deputy director of the Political-Military Studies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; and staff consultant at International Energy Associates. His recent publications include Turkish Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty (2003); Greece's New Geopolitics (2001); NATO Looks South (2000); Countering the New Terrorism (1999); and A Sense of Siege: The Geopolitics of Islam and the West. He is a frequent commentator for television, radio and print media.